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Nour El Tayeb v Salma Hany (Tue 23 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nour El Tayeb. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 12,593, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,316, level confidence: 65%.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing 51% better than Salma Hany.

Nour El Tayeb won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Tayeb played 83% better than Salma Hany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Tayeb actually played at a level of 13,856 and Salma Hany at a level of 7,558. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb changes to +7.3% and Salma Hany changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb becomes +2.4% and for Salma Hany becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Tayeb: 85%, Salma Hany: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Tayeb: 77%, Salma Hany: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 12,642, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Salma Hany: 8,221, level confidence: 73%.