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Fares Dessouky v Miguel Rodriguez (Tue 23 Apr 2019)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-7,11-5,7-11,11-9.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 51,426, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,821, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Fares Dessouky won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 25% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of 56,021 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 44,817. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +8.7% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +2.1% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 80%, Miguel Rodriguez: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 73%, Miguel Rodriguez: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 52,353, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,080, level confidence: 86%.