Patrick Rooney v Robert Downer (Tue 23 Apr 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-2,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
30,356, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
19,187, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Robert Downer.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
74% better than Robert Downer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
31,806 and Robert Downer at a level of
18,312. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +3.8% and Robert Downer changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +1.4% and for Robert Downer becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 86%, Robert Downer: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 82%, Robert Downer: 86%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
30,766, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
18,917, level confidence: 86%.