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Sebastian Bonmalais v Miko ??Ijänen (Tue 23 Apr 2019)

Match won by Sebastian Bonmalais. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 21,627, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miko ??Ijänen: 26,177, level confidence: 62%.
Miko ??Ijänen to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Sebastian Bonmalais won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastian Bonmalais played 94% better than Miko ??Ijänen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastian Bonmalais actually played at a level of 33,151 and Miko ??Ijänen at a level of 17,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastian Bonmalais changes to +42% and Miko ??Ijänen changes to -47%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes +8.4% and for Miko ??Ijänen becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sebastian Bonmalais is limited to +6.3% and Miko ??Ijänen is limited to -5.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastian Bonmalais: 84%, Miko ??Ijänen: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastian Bonmalais: 55%, Miko ??Ijänen: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 22,997, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Miko ??Ijänen: 24,798, level confidence: 52%.