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Miguel Rodriguez v Raphael Kandra (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 8-11,10-12,11-5,11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,007, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,502, level confidence: 66%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Raphael Kandra.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 13% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 47,649, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 48,612 (based on typical behaviour), Raphael Kandra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -0.9% and Raphael Kandra changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -0.3% and for Raphael Kandra becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 90%, Raphael Kandra: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 88%, Raphael Kandra: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,737, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,857, level confidence: 80%.