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Adrain Waller v Gregoire Marche (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 13-11,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 44,995, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 45,299, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Adrain Waller.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 75% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 59,724 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 34,128. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +33% and Gregoire Marche changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +6.1% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adrain Waller is limited to +5.1% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 83%, Gregoire Marche: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 62%, Gregoire Marche: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 47,260, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,284, level confidence: 67%.