SquashLevels calculations
Joel Makin v Mostafa Asal (Mon 22 Apr 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,11-5,7-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
52,995, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
37,262, level confidence: 61%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Mostafa Asal.
Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
41% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
In this case, Joel Makin played at level 52,592 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mostafa Asal is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 86%, Mostafa Asal: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 86%, Mostafa Asal: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
52,945, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
37,311, level confidence: 78%.