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Max Lee v Karim El Hammamy (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Max Lee: 42,332, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,016, level confidence: 56%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Max Lee won 75% of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 128% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 59% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of 43,413 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 27,318. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +1.4% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +0.5% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 91%, Karim El Hammamy: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 89%, Karim El Hammamy: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 42,327, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,013, level confidence: 73%.