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Nafizwan Adnan v Omar Abdel Meguid (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 34,624, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 28,501, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Omar Abdel Meguid.

Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 43% better than Omar Abdel Meguid in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nafizwan Adnan actually played at a level of 37,601 and Omar Abdel Meguid at a level of 26,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to +7.8% and Omar Abdel Meguid changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes +2.1% and for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 86%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 79%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 35,180, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 28,018, level confidence: 81%.