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Edmon Lopez Moller v Leo Au (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,16-14,11-13,11-6.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,578, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 39,720, level confidence: 70%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 26% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 41,650 and Leo Au at a level of 32,976. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +18% and Leo Au changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +3.8% and for Leo Au becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 87%, Leo Au: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 72%, Leo Au: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,822, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Leo Au: 38,938, level confidence: 69%.