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Borja Golan v Ben Coleman (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 42,781, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,660, level confidence: 68%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Ben Coleman.

Borja Golan won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 94% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 50,460 and Ben Coleman at a level of 25,994. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +13% and Ben Coleman changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +3% and for Ben Coleman becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 87%, Ben Coleman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 74%, Ben Coleman: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 43,802, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 29,860, level confidence: 70%.