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Cameron Pilley v Mazen Gamal (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-1,11-4,6-11,11-5.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 38,717, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 28,209, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Mazen Gamal.

Cameron Pilley won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 45% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 39,800 and Mazen Gamal at a level of 27,441. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +2.4% and Mazen Gamal changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +0.9% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 90%, Mazen Gamal: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 88%, Mazen Gamal: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,788, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal: 28,195, level confidence: 88%.