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Michael McLaughlin v Darren Withey (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Darren Withey. Result: 7-15,15-11,9-15,15-6,9-15.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,159, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Darren Withey: 7,291, level confidence: 49%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Darren Withey.

Darren Withey won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Withey played 11% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Withey actually played at a level of 8,597 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of 7,767. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Withey changes to +16% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Withey becomes +4.9% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -3.2%.

Given Darren Withey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.8% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Veterans League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Darren Withey is +3.3% and for Michael McLaughlin is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Withey: 70%, Michael McLaughlin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Withey: 59%, Michael McLaughlin: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,962, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Darren Withey: 7,524, level confidence: 59%.