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Paul Gonzalez v Nils Schwab (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-3,11-6,8-11,11-7.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,230, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Nils Schwab: 8,789, level confidence: 63%.
Nils Schwab to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Paul Gonzalez won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 34% better than Nils Schwab in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 9,840 and Nils Schwab at a level of 7,351. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +19% and Nils Schwab changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +5.4% and for Nils Schwab becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Junior Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 73%, Nils Schwab: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 61%, Nils Schwab: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,698, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Nils Schwab: 8,619, level confidence: 67%.