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Maximillian Baum v Paul Gonzalez (Mon 15 Apr 2019)

Match won by Maximillian Baum. Result: 11-8,10-12,8-11,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Maximillian Baum: 9,875, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,934, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Maximillian Baum to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Maximillian Baum won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Maximillian Baum played 11% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Maximillian Baum actually played at a level of 9,885 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 8,925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Maximillian Baum changes to 0% and Paul Gonzalez changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Maximillian Baum becomes +0% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Individual Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Maximillian Baum: 91%, Paul Gonzalez: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Maximillian Baum: 91%, Paul Gonzalez: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Maximillian Baum: 9,904, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,952, level confidence: 85%.