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Ivan Perez v Paul Gonzalez (Sun 14 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ivan Perez. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Ivan Perez: 12,964, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 9,094, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ivan Perez to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Ivan Perez won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Perez played 94% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Perez actually played at a level of 15,128 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 7,793. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Perez changes to +14% and Paul Gonzalez changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Perez becomes +3.8% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Individual Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Perez: 77%, Paul Gonzalez: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Perez: 66%, Paul Gonzalez: 72%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ivan Perez: 13,494, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,934, level confidence: 72%.