Paul Gonzalez v Chris Murphy (Sat 13 Apr 2019)
Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-7,11-8,6-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Paul Gonzalez:
8,481, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Chris Murphy:
7,854, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Chris Murphy.
Paul Gonzalez won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played
27% better than Chris Murphy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of
9,185 and Chris Murphy at a level of
7,252. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +8% and Chris Murphy changes to -6.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +2.8% and for Chris Murphy becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Individual Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 83%, Chris Murphy: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 76%, Chris Murphy: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez:
8,740, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Chris Murphy:
7,716, level confidence: 84%.