SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Ali Farag v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Sun 14 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-13,11-6,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 73,442, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,698, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 38% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 81,460 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 59,232. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +10% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +2.2% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 92%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 83%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 74,870, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,491, level confidence: 82%.