Ali Farag v Simon Rösner (Sat 13 Apr 2019)
Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 13-11,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
72,900, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
54,513, level confidence: 65%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Simon Rösner.
Ali Farag won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played
49% better than Simon Rösner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of
76,913 and Simon Rösner at a level of
51,669. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +3.8% and Simon Rösner changes to -4.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +1.2% and for Simon Rösner becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 90%, Simon Rösner: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 86%, Simon Rösner: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Farag:
73,408, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
54,051, level confidence: 76%.