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Greg Lobban v Saurav Ghosal (Fri 12 Apr 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 6-11,11-8,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,671, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 47,705, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Greg Lobban.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 24% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 48,437 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 39,072. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +20% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +4.2% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 83%, Saurav Ghosal: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 68%, Saurav Ghosal: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 41,228, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,022, level confidence: 69%.