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Tsz Fung Yip v Leo Au (Fri 12 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-9,11-1,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,608, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 40,993, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Tsz Fung Yip won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 30% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Fung Yip actually played at a level of 45,393 and Leo Au at a level of 34,866. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to +16% and Leo Au changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +3.5% and for Leo Au becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 87%, Leo Au: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 74%, Leo Au: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,898, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Leo Au: 39,720, level confidence: 72%.