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Karim Abdel Gawad v Paul Coll (Fri 12 Apr 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-6,14-12.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 58,634, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 65,817, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 23% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 68,943 and Paul Coll at a level of 55,975. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +16% and Paul Coll changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +3.2% and for Paul Coll becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 87%, Paul Coll: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 74%, Paul Coll: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 60,446, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 63,926, level confidence: 72%.