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Saurav Ghosal v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 9-11,11-7,10-12,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,805, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,569, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Saurav Ghosal won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 13% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

As Saurav Ghosal has played below his allowed range at 41,299, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Saurav Ghosal would normally have been playing at level 46,752 (based on typical behaviour), Mahesh Mangaonkar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to -7% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes -1.8% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 81%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 72%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 47,905, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,339, level confidence: 77%.