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Tsz Fung Yip v Shahjahan Khan (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-2,5-11,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,306, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shahjahan Khan: 24,411, level confidence: 60%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Shahjahan Khan.

Tsz Fung Yip won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 27% better than Shahjahan Khan in this match.

As Tsz Fung Yip has played below his allowed range at 32,689, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 36,809 (based on typical behaviour), Shahjahan Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to -3.5% and Shahjahan Khan changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -1.3% and for Shahjahan Khan becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 85%, Shahjahan Khan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 76%, Shahjahan Khan: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,789, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan: 25,006, level confidence: 69%.