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Max Lee v Ivan Yuen (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-4,7-11,11-9,5-11,11-5.

Starting level for Max Lee: 42,301, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 34,007, level confidence: 50%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Ivan Yuen.

Max Lee won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 11% better than Ivan Yuen in this match.

As Max Lee has played below his allowed range at 39,273, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 41,644 (based on typical behaviour), Ivan Yuen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to -2.6% and Ivan Yuen changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes -1% and for Ivan Yuen becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 86%, Ivan Yuen: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 81%, Ivan Yuen: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 41,870, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen: 34,597, level confidence: 67%.