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Diego Elias v Edmon Lopez Moller (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 57,806, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,081, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 120% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 66,793 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of 30,361. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +12% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2.6% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 76%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 66%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 58,969, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,578, level confidence: 79%.