Paul Coll v Raphael Kandra (Thu 11 Apr 2019)
Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
65,094, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,210, level confidence: 62%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing
54% better than Raphael Kandra.
Paul Coll won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played
100% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of
74,130 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
37,065. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +10.1% and Raphael Kandra changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +2.3% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 82%, Raphael Kandra: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 72%, Raphael Kandra: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Coll:
66,237, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
41,465, level confidence: 69%.