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Karim Abdel Gawad v Gregoire Marche (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-4,8-11,11-5.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 59,398, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 44,275, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Gregoire Marche.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 16% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 53,777, his level reduction is 4.5% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 57,762 (based on typical behaviour), Gregoire Marche played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -3.8% and Gregoire Marche changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -1.2% and for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 82%, Gregoire Marche: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 77%, Gregoire Marche: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 58,644, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 44,989, level confidence: 83%.