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Declan James v Mohamed Abouelghar (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 14-12,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Declan James: 42,149, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 52,382, level confidence: 61%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Declan James.

Declan James won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 40% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 55,534 and Mohamed Abouelghar at a level of 39,757. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +25% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +4.9% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 83%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 63%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 44,120, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 50,013, level confidence: 59%.