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Miguel Rodriguez v Daryl Selby (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 14-16,11-5,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,115, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,874, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Daryl Selby.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 34% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 49,375 and Daryl Selby at a level of 36,907. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +2.3% and Daryl Selby changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +0.9% and for Daryl Selby becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 85%, Daryl Selby: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 83%, Daryl Selby: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,285, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,841, level confidence: 88%.