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Anna Kimberley v Julia Le Coq (Wed 10 Apr 2019)

Match won by Anna Kimberley. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Anna Kimberley: 4,320, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 3,464, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Anna Kimberley to win as she is currently playing 25% better than Julia Le Coq.

Anna Kimberley won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anna Kimberley played 52% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anna Kimberley actually played at a level of 4,764 and Julia Le Coq at a level of 3,141. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anna Kimberley changes to +7.8% and Julia Le Coq changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anna Kimberley becomes +3.3% and for Julia Le Coq becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Richmond Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anna Kimberley: 92%, Julia Le Coq: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anna Kimberley: 84%, Julia Le Coq: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anna Kimberley: 4,461, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq: 3,395, level confidence: 78%.