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Raphael Kandra v George Parker (Wed 10 Apr 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-7,13-11,11-3.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 40,466, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for George Parker: 37,598, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 8% better than George Parker.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 67% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 50,356 and George Parker at a level of 30,214. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +23% and George Parker changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4.7% and for George Parker becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 77%, George Parker: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 62%, George Parker: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 42,210, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for George Parker: 36,534, level confidence: 72%.