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Declan James v Mostafa Asal (Wed 10 Apr 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Declan James: 39,799, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 37,565, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mostafa Asal.

Declan James won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 94% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 53,872 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 27,752. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +28% and Mostafa Asal changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +5.5% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mostafa Asal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 93%, Mostafa Asal: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 69%, Mostafa Asal: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 41,802, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 35,857, level confidence: 63%.