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Daryl Selby v Lucas Serme (Wed 10 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 4-11,11-4,11-8,9-11,11-5.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,245, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 37,023, level confidence: 69%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Lucas Serme.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 12% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 39,297 and Lucas Serme at a level of 35,090. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +5.1% and Lucas Serme changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +1.6% and for Lucas Serme becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 86%, Lucas Serme: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 82%, Lucas Serme: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,874, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,573, level confidence: 78%.