James Willstrop v Cameron Pilley (Wed 10 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 6-11,11-7,8-11,11-9,11-5.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
44,114, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
38,366, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Cameron Pilley.
James Willstrop won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
10% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
43,113 and Cameron Pilley at a level of
39,256. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -2.2% and Cameron Pilley changes to +1.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.8% and for Cameron Pilley becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 65%, Cameron Pilley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 64%, Cameron Pilley: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
43,759, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
38,676, level confidence: 85%.