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Mohamed Elsherbini v Carlos Cornes (Tue 09 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-9,13-11,11-3.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 34,999, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 27,016, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Carlos Cornes.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 53% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 38,048 and Carlos Cornes at a level of 24,851. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +6.8% and Carlos Cornes changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +1.9% and for Carlos Cornes becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 91%, Carlos Cornes: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 84%, Carlos Cornes: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,606, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 26,651, level confidence: 79%.