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Jonathon Power v Nick Taylor (Mon 08 Apr 2019)

Match won by Jonathon Power. Result: 13-11,11-9.

Starting level for Jonathon Power: 18,101, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Nick Taylor: 16,650, level confidence: 55%.
Jonathon Power to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Nick Taylor.

Jonathon Power won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathon Power played 32% better than Nick Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathon Power actually played at a level of 19,911 and Nick Taylor at a level of 15,136. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathon Power changes to +7.1% and Nick Taylor changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathon Power becomes +2.2% and for Nick Taylor becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Legends' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathon Power: 70%, Nick Taylor: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathon Power: 64%, Nick Taylor: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathon Power: 18,545, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Nick Taylor: 16,351, level confidence: 67%.