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Mohamed Elsherbini v Wong Chi Him (Sun 07 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-5,11-9,9-11,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,919, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 22,053, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Wong Chi Him.

Mohamed Elsherbini won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 35% better than Wong Chi Him in this match.

As Mohamed Elsherbini has played below his allowed range at 30,547, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 33,542 (based on typical behaviour), Wong Chi Him played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -2% and Wong Chi Him changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -0.8% and for Wong Chi Him becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 84%, Wong Chi Him: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 77%, Wong Chi Him: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,546, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Wong Chi Him: 22,489, level confidence: 85%.