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David Palmer v Peter Marshall (Sun 07 Apr 2019)

Match won by David Palmer. Result: 14-12,11-7.

Starting level for David Palmer: 22,373, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Peter Marshall: 18,522, level confidence: 67%.
David Palmer to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Peter Marshall.

David Palmer won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Palmer played 39% better than Peter Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Palmer actually played at a level of 24,027 and Peter Marshall at a level of 17,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Palmer changes to +5% and Peter Marshall changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Palmer becomes +1.7% and for Peter Marshall becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Legends' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Palmer: 54%, Peter Marshall: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Palmer: 51%, Peter Marshall: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Palmer: 22,805, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Peter Marshall: 18,395, level confidence: 76%.