John White v Jonathon Power (Sat 06 Apr 2019)
Match won by John White. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-6.
Starting level for
John White:
17,395, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
Jonathon Power:
18,768, level confidence: 10%.
Jonathon Power to win as he is currently playing
8% better than John White.
John White won 67% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John White played
18% better than Jonathon Power in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John White actually played at a level of
19,602 and Jonathon Power at a level of
16,655. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John White changes to +9% and Jonathon Power changes to -9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John White becomes +2.6% and for Jonathon Power becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Legends' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John White: 32%, Jonathon Power: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John White: 28%, Jonathon Power: 28%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John White:
17,895, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for Jonathon Power:
18,338, level confidence: 28%.