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Joel Makin v Dimitri Steinmann (Fri 05 Apr 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-7,11-7,6-11,11-5.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 54,729, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 30,753, level confidence: 69%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 27% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 41,602, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 49,889 (based on typical behaviour), Dimitri Steinmann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -5.1% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to +9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.5% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +2.4%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 84% has been applied to his level change.

Given Dimitri Steinmann's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is -0.6% and for Dimitri Steinmann is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 80%, Dimitri Steinmann: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 67%, Dimitri Steinmann: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 54,325, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 31,055, level confidence: 70%.