John Williams v Daryl Selby (Thu 07 Mar 2019)
Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 12-10,6-11,7-11,5-11.
Starting level for
John Williams:
1,761, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for
Daryl Selby:
39,542, level confidence: 55%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing
2145% better than John Williams.
Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played
31% better than John Williams in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 73%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,121 and 39,542 without affecting his level.
In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 4,986 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 10,773 (based on typical behaviour), John Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 116%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and John Williams changes to +18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for John Williams becomes +8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is 0% and for John Williams is +6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 74%, John Williams: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 18%, John Williams: 12%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John Williams:
1,864, level confidence: 12%.
Final level for Daryl Selby:
39,483, level confidence: 18%.