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Raphael Kandra v Davide Bianchetti (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-1,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,117, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Davide Bianchetti: 19,118, level confidence: 67%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Davide Bianchetti.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 154% better than Davide Bianchetti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 44,670 and Davide Bianchetti at a level of 17,597. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +5.7% and Davide Bianchetti changes to -5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +1.6% and for Davide Bianchetti becomes -1.9%.

Given Raphael Kandra's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change.

Given Davide Bianchetti's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Raphael Kandra is +0.7% and for Davide Bianchetti is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 82%, Davide Bianchetti: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 76%, Davide Bianchetti: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,355, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Davide Bianchetti: 18,893, level confidence: 75%.