Mostafa Asal v Youssef Soliman (Fri 05 Apr 2019)
Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 8-11,7-11,11-2,11-1,11-7.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
36,609, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
40,364, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Mostafa Asal.
Mostafa Asal won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played
20% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of
42,110 and Youssef Soliman at a level of
35,091. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +14% and Youssef Soliman changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +3.2% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 85%, Youssef Soliman: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 74%, Youssef Soliman: 81%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
37,776, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
39,629, level confidence: 81%.