Mostafa Asal v Greg Lobban (Thu 04 Apr 2019)
Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-5,5-11,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
34,876, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
38,481, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Mostafa Asal.
Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played
30% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of
41,801 and Greg Lobban at a level of
32,106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +19% and Greg Lobban changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +4.1% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 86%, Greg Lobban: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 72%, Greg Lobban: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
36,231, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
37,252, level confidence: 74%.