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Sebastien Bonmalais v Matias Tuomi (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 21,960, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Matias Tuomi: 16,020, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Matias Tuomi.

Sebastien Bonmalais won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 23% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.

As Sebastien Bonmalais has played below his allowed range at 20,131, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Sebastien Bonmalais would normally have been playing at level 21,274 (based on typical behaviour), Matias Tuomi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to -2% and Matias Tuomi changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes -0.9% and for Matias Tuomi becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 78%, Matias Tuomi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 74%, Matias Tuomi: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 21,773, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi: 16,213, level confidence: 83%.