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Mostafa Asal v Mazen Gamal (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 34,740, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 28,260, level confidence: 65%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Mazen Gamal.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 33% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 36,169 and Mazen Gamal at a level of 27,144. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +3.7% and Mazen Gamal changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +1.3% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 78%, Mazen Gamal: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 75%, Mazen Gamal: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 35,055, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal: 28,091, level confidence: 77%.