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Greg Lobban v Mohamed Elsherbini (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-5,11-6,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,121, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 36,785, level confidence: 66%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 32% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 42,949 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of 32,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +10.3% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +2.5% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 90%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 80%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,020, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,919, level confidence: 72%.