Emilia Soini v Julia Le Coq (Wed 03 Apr 2019)
Match won by Emilia Soini. Result: 11-3,10-12,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Emilia Soini:
5,800, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Julia Le Coq:
3,361, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Emilia Soini to win as she is currently playing
73% better than Julia Le Coq.
Emilia Soini won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emilia Soini played
33% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.
As Emilia Soini has played below her allowed range at 4,677, her level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Emilia Soini would normally have been playing at level 5,334 (based on typical behaviour), Julia Le Coq played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emilia Soini changes to -3.7% and Julia Le Coq changes to +6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emilia Soini becomes -1.9% and for Julia Le Coq becomes +3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Racquet Club Pro Series' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emilia Soini: 83%, Julia Le Coq: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emilia Soini: 73%, Julia Le Coq: 75%.
Final level for Emilia Soini:
5,691, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq:
3,465, level confidence: 75%.