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Emilia Soini v Julia Le Coq (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Emilia Soini. Result: 11-3,10-12,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Emilia Soini: 5,800, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 3,361, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Emilia Soini to win as she is currently playing 73% better than Julia Le Coq.

Emilia Soini won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emilia Soini played 33% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.

As Emilia Soini has played below her allowed range at 4,677, her level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Emilia Soini would normally have been playing at level 5,334 (based on typical behaviour), Julia Le Coq played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emilia Soini changes to -3.7% and Julia Le Coq changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emilia Soini becomes -1.9% and for Julia Le Coq becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Racquet Club Pro Series' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emilia Soini: 83%, Julia Le Coq: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emilia Soini: 73%, Julia Le Coq: 75%.

Final level for Emilia Soini: 5,691, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq: 3,465, level confidence: 75%.