Mohamed Elsherbini v Shehab Essam (Tue 02 Apr 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
34,998, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Shehab Essam:
30,710, level confidence: 63%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Shehab Essam.
Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played
74% better than Shehab Essam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of
43,206 and Shehab Essam at a level of
24,876. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +20% and Shehab Essam changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +4.3% and for Shehab Essam becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 82%, Shehab Essam: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 67%, Shehab Essam: 64%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
36,311, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Shehab Essam:
29,566, level confidence: 64%.